Central Bank Communications: From Mystery to Transparency

Annual Research Conference of the National Bank of Ukraine organized in cooperation with Narodowy Bank Polski

Kyiv, 23 - 24 May 2019


#NBUconference19 #NBUresearch #researchconference

For many decades, central banks have preferred to stay in the shadow and talk as little as possible. For some, communications have been a distraction, for others, an extracurricular activity. However, the world has changed, and so has the central banking community.


In the modern world, transparency is a means of survival for central banks. They can no longer afford to be silent technocrats. Today, openness to dialogue, eagerness to explain policy decisions and clarify policy prospects, responsibility for words and actions, and accountability are key to gaining trust, tackling populism, and preserving the independence of central banks. Moreover, communications have also become a powerful policy tool that reinforces the effectiveness of policy decisions by shaping expectations and altering stakeholder behavior.


So, how much should central banks communicate then? Can talking too much cause even more uncertainty? Are communications equally effective in different areas of policy?


To discuss these and many other questions, join us for the fourth Annual Research Conference 2019, organized by the National Bank of Ukraine and Narodowy Bank Polski and supported by the Canada-IMF Technical Assistance Project NBU Institutional Capacity Building, the Kyiv School of Economics, and the Journal of Monetary Economics.


The two-day conference will provide a broad platform where central bankers, communications specialists, central banks’ stakeholders, and researchers from all over the world can share expertise and experience.


During the conference, policy makers and experts from central banks of Canada, Croatia, Lithuania, Poland, Sweden, the Unites States of America, the United Kingdom, the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the world’s leading universities will present their views regarding central bank transparency. The highlight of the conference will be the key speech by Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves.

Program

ТHURSDAY, 23 MAY 2019
08:00 – 09:00

Registration

Welcome coffee

09:00 – 09:30

Opening remarks

Yakiv Smolii, National Bank of Ukraine

Paweł Szałamacha, Narodowy Bank Polski

09:30 – 11:00

Session 1: Central bank communication to enhance public trust and understanding

Enhancing Central Bank Communications with Behavioral Insights

Presenter: Eryk Walczak, Bank of England

Discussant: Klodiana Istrefi, Banque de France

Central Bank Announcements: Big News for Little People?

Presenter: Michael Lamla, University of Essex

Discussant: Carola Conces Binder, Haverford College

11:00 – 11:30

Coffee break

11:30 – 12:30

Keynote Lecture

Stefan Ingves, Sveriges Riksbank

12:30 – 13:30

Lunch

13:30 – 14:00

Guest Remarks

Valeria Gontareva, London School of Economics

14:00 – 15:30

Policy Panel 1: Central banks vs populists: ignore or fight

Moderator: Olga Stankova, International Monetary Fund

Speakers: Gareth Ramsay, Bank of England
Boris Vujčić, Croatian National Bank (tbc)
Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California, Berkeley
Representative, National Bank of Ukraine

15:30 – 16:00

Coffee break

16:00 – 17:30

Session 2: Monetary policy communication and expectation formation

Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises - The Role of Information Shocks

Presenter: Marek Jarocinski, European Central Bank

Discussant: Wouter den Haan, London School of Economics

Monetary Policy Announcements and Expectations: Evidence from German Firms

Presenter: Zeno Enders, University of Heidelberg

Discussant: Rüdiger Bachmann, University of Notre Dame

18:00 – 21:00

Gala Dinner


FRIDAY, 24 MAY 2019
08:30 – 09:00

Registration

Welcome coffee

09:00 – 10:30

Session 3: Effects of forward guidance

Forward Guidance: Communication, Commitment, or Both?

Presenter: Marco Bassetto, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Discussant: Fernando Duarte, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Can More Public Information Raise Uncertainty? The International Evidence on Forward

Guidance

Presenter: Michael Ehrmann, European Central Bank

Discussant: Jeffrey Campbell, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

10:30 – 11:00

Coffee break

11:00 – 12:30

Policy Panel 2: Central banks policy signals in informational noise

Moderator: tbc

Speakers: Vitas Vasiliauskas, Bank of Lithuania
Christine Graeff, European Central Bank
Clemens Grafe, Goldman Sachs
Piotr Szpunar, Narodowy Bank Polski

12:30 – 13:30

Lunch

13:30 – 15:00

Session 4: Communicating future path of policy instruments

The Limits of Forward Guidance

Presenter: Jonas Fisher, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Discussant: Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, Narodowy Bank Polski

Monetary Policy Communication, Policy Slope, and the Stock Market

Presenter: Michael Weber, University of Chicago

Discussant: Emanuel Mönch, Deutsche Bundesbank

15:00 – 15:30

Coffee break

15:30 – 17:00

Session 5: Communication signals to financial markets

Measuring Euro Area Monetary Policy

Presenter: Carlo Altavilla, European Central Bank

Discussant: Jonathan Wright, John Hopkins University

The Long-Run Information Effect of Central Bank Communication

Presenter: Michael McMahon, University of Oxford

Discussant: Jenny Tang, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

17:00 – 17:15

Closing remarks

Speakers

With the support of:

Government of Canada

img

Kyiv School of Economics

img

Journal of Monetary Economics

img

Since the beginning of the crisis in Ukraine, Canada has been at the forefront of the international community’s support to the Ukrainian people – especially in their government’s ongoing and important reform efforts.

Since January 2014, Canada has also announced more than $700 million in much-needed assistance to Ukraine, including $400 million in low interest loans to help Ukraine stabilize its economy and over $240 million in bilateral development assistance focusing on democracy, the rule of law, and sustainable economic growth.

More information

Founded in 1996, the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) is a world-class, well-respected educational institution, both in Ukraine and abroad. The KSE is ranked among the top schools in Central and Eastern Europe. This educational institution trains the future generation of world-class economists, thus contributing to the development of economics, business, as well as economic policy in Ukraine and neighboring countries.

More information

The Journal of Monetary Economics is a peer-reviewed academic journal covering research on macroeconomics and monetary economics. Since 2018, its editors are Urban Jermann and Yuriy Gorodnichenko.

The Journal of Monetary Economicspublishes important research contributions to a wide range of modern macroeconomic topics including work along empirical, methodological and theoretical lines. It is widely regarded as one of the most prestigious academic journals in economics and consistently ranked as top 10 among all economics journals.

The Journal of Monetary Economics has eight regular issues per year.The research papers selected forpresentation at the Annual Research Conference 2019 will be featured in the JME’s special issue.

More information

Venue

img Fairmont Grand Hotel Kyiv
Naberezhno-Khreshachatyts'ka St, 1, Kyiv, 04070, Ukraine
TEL. +380-44-3228888